MVP Showdown: Can Judge and Ohtani Hold Off the New Blood?

As we barrel toward the final stretch of the 2025 MLB season, the MVP races in both leagues are heating up. And this season, it is not in an easily predictable way. Yes, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are still standing tall as favorites. But if you think this year’s vote is a foregone conclusion, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s going on in Seattle and Philadelphia.

Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber are turning the MVP conversation upside down. And suddenly, the age-old question is back on the table:

Is voter fatigue real?

It shouldn't be. The votes should always be cast for the most deserving player. The Baseball Writers Association of America is supposed to evaluate MVP candidates based solely on merit, not on how many trophies they already have. But they are all human. And if the ridiculousness of the Hall of Fame voting has taught us anything, they do not always vote for those who deserve it. And let's be honest... when was the last time we saw two players, year after year, perform at this level?

Judge has won twice in the past three years. Ohtani? Three out of the last four. And the only reason it isn't more is Judge's historic 62 home run season - which was one of the best offensive seasons in history. Both remain phenomenal, but the competition is fierce, and the clock is ticking with just under a month left to play.

Raleigh Rising in Seattle

In the AL, the Mariners' Cal Raleigh is making a case that can’t be ignored. Not only has he slugged 50 home runs, a record for a primary catcher, but he’s also the reigning AL Platinum Glove winner. He is anchoring Seattle’s defense at the most demanding position on the field.

Compare that to Judge, who hasn’t played right field since July 25 due to an elbow injury and missed 10 games. Offensively, Judge still has the edge. He has a 168-point lead in OPS, plus a whopping .440 OBP and a .666 slugging percentage that nearly matches his epic 2022 campaign. To be honest, Raleigh isn't even close.

But does Raleigh’s value behind the plate close that gap? He has superior game-calling, framing, throwing, blocking, and sheer stamina at the position. He’s started 129 of Seattle’s 134 games, almost all of them at catcher. His first-half OPS was a sizzling 1.011. Unfortunately for Cal, he’s cooled noticeably since the break. But even with that being the case, his impact on both sides of the ball is undeniable.

And let’s not pretend defense doesn’t matter. Especially when it’s coming from a Gold Glove backstop who’s also launching balls out of the park like a corner slugger.

Schwarber vs. Sho-Time

Then there’s the National League, where fans at Citizens Bank Park were chanting “M-V-P” after Kyle Schwarber launched four homers in one night, taking over the league lead with 49. That kind of thunder puts him in Ohtani’s crosshairs — and the debate is on.

At first glance, this should be easy. Ohtani pitches. Schwarber doesn’t. Game over, right?

Not quite.

Ohtani has only logged 32.1 innings on the mound after returning from elbow and shoulder surgeries. He’s projected to throw far fewer innings than in his previous MVP campaigns. His 4.18 ERA might raise eyebrows and cause some to dismiss him on the mound this season. I'm one of those people. Effectively, his lack of excellence on the mound means that Schwarber being mostly a DH won't be held against him.

Offensively, the two are pretty darned close. Ohtani has a slight edge in OPS, OBP, and slugging, but Schwarber leads the majors in RBIs with 119, a product of batting lower in the order, unlike Ohtani who leads off most nights.

Defensively, this is not a battle of gold gloves. Ohtani is a DH. Schwarber, though technically a left fielder, has only played a hand full of games there. Neither provides much glove value, so it’s really a bat war with Ohtani’s part-time pitching as the X-factor which is not compelling this season.

Metrics That Matter

As voters dig into the numbers, certain advanced stats may carry weight. WAR has its flaws — particularly when evaluating catchers — but Win Probability Added (WPA) offers a clearer picture of clutch impact. This is my opinion, but it is widely held.

As of Thursday:

• Ohtani leads all of MLB in WPA.

• Raleigh ranks third — just ahead of Judge.

• Schwarber? Fifteenth.

Of course, there’s still time for everything to change. A monster September from any of these four could swing the vote. And that’s the beauty, and the chaos of MVP season.

Let the Best Man Win — THIS Season

It’s tempting to lean on narrative. Judge and Ohtani are icons. Their résumés sparkle with past glory, and fans and media alike are drawn to familiar greatness.

But that’s not what the MVP is about.

It’s about who brought the most value in this season — not the last three. Not the last five. Not based on reputation or market size. (Remember, every city gets two votes. A Kansas City ballot counts the same as New York or L.A and Bobby Witt is sure to get votes.)

If Raleigh or Schwarber pull off the upset, it won’t be because the voters were bored. It’ll be because they earned it. And if Judge and Ohtani hold their ground?

That’s fine too — as long as it’s about 2025, not 2022.

So buckle up. This race is far from over!